It appears that Vichy Republican Thad Cochran has won the Senate primary run-off over Tea Party Chris McDaniel, in a close race in Mississippi. According to the Washington Post, Cochran encouraged black Democrats to vote for him, the great procurer of Washington Pork for Mississippi, and this made the difference.
McDaniel said that "the Republican primary was decided by liberal Democrats." How Democrats are allowed to vote in a Republican primary isn't clear.
H.L. Mencken said it best: "Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods." It is always difficult to run against "free stuff," as the average citizen does not see the bigger picture nor care. He only wants to know, "What free goodies can you stuff in my pocket today?"
We came close in this election, and we must keep fighting. As Churchill once said, "Never, never, never give up." We won't. We can't.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
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How Democrats are allowed to vote in a Republican primary isn't clear.
Some states have open primaries. In Idaho the primary is closed. States with open primaries:
H/T Wiki...
Alabama
Arizona (Semi-closed, with primaries open only to unaffiliated or unrepresented voters)
Arkansas
Georgia
Hawaii (Open primary for state, local, and congressional races; caucus system for presidential races.)
Illinois
Massachusetts (All races' primaries open for "unenrolled"/unaffiliated voters only)
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Wisconsin
Calif has an open primary too, but I was unaware that so many other states do also. Rush said that without the Democrat vote, Cochran would have lost by 8 or 9 points.
I'm never going to quit as long as I have breath. But the political scenario is so damn grim.
I'm not joining the conga line of conventional wisdom lemmings to run off the side of a cliff and conclude that the only reason Thad Cochran pulled this thing out was entirely because of black votes.
1. The conclusion that McDaniel wins by 8 but for black voters is based on a piece by Nate Silver at 538. The problem with his piece is that it presumes every voter yesterday in a county that is heavily black in terms of population was a black voter, and that's something I don't presume, or even believe. The raw number vote turnout from the black belt delta counties was pathetically low, and while Cochran won them easily, they were probably white people voting Cochran for some self interest pork barrel reason.
2. But even if they were all black voters, their effect would have been negated entirely if McDaniel got just 4% more of the white vote.
And why couldn't he get more of the white vote?
Now we're getting down to the bare metal of the hard drive, the real reasons why yesterday turned out the way it did:
1. Consider this: Between 1947 and 2007, a time period of 60 years, the state of Mississippi only had four individuals represent it in the U.S. Senate -- James Eastland, John Stennis, Thad Cochran, Trent Lott. Plain words, even more than usual, Mississippi's is a state political culture that rewards incumbency.
2. Mississippi and the Deep South, especially the middle aged to elderly whites, maintains a strong elder-deferential culture. (Not that that's a bad thing.) There were just enough white people who either didn't vote three weeks ago or voted McDaniel three weeks ago who wound up, when it came to the do-or-die vote, just couldn't toss out the incumbent. I bet most of those were older white people, both men and women, who weren't too happy with the young upstart whippersnapper trying to take something away from the older person, not waiting in line to wait his turn.
3. While I gave money to McDaniel and would have voted for him, because on the immigration question, I think he's more reliable than Cochran, the incumbent had one psychological advantage in this matter: He voted against the Gang Bangers of Eight bill. The next chance we have, early August in Tennessee, the incumbent there, Lamar Alexander, does not have that luxury, and in fact, when pressed, is doubling down on the idiocy.
That said, even though Cochran's race pandering I don't think was the deciding factor, he still did it, still engaged in it, and it's wrong enough as it is, and it must be punished, meaning no voting for Cochran in November if you're in Mississippi.
Yes, if I lived in Mississippi, there is no way I could vote for Cochran after that. I would write in McDaniel's name.
Thanks for your analysis, it makes sense.
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