Wazzup With the Polls?

Powerline today says the polls are tightening and that Karl Rove and George Bush are upbeat and optimistic about Republican chances for holding onto control of both the House and Senate. Maybe they've just gone mad, but let's hope they know something we don't. I do hope they aren't going to take Osama out of his cell and and parade him before the cameras, we need to save that trick for 2008.

Polls, like news stories, can be skewed and biased. One of the reasons is oversampling of Democrats or Republicans. If your poll is composed of 65% Democrats in a district where Democrats are only 50% of the population, you have oversampling. That skews the poll results in favor of the Democrats. How you frame the questions can also skew the results. If you ask, "Are you more likely to vote for a Democrat or a sneaky, Snidely Whiplash, mortgage-foreclosing, widow-and-orphan evicting Republican?" then you may have some slight bias in favor of Democrats.

One more point in the GOP's favor: Republicans have more money to spend on advertising in the last three weeks of the campaign and spend it they will.

They say the only poll that counts is the one taken in the voting booth on election day. I agree with that, so get your butts to the polls and vote! I NEVER miss voting, even here in California where they will elect a salamander before they will elect a Republican. I will go to the polls, hold my nose and vote for Arnold Schwarzenkennedy. Then I'll go home and get drunk.